the wgaf-value

While the special health council for the French Government is closing down, the number of cases here remains quite high, seemingly in a complete indifference or worse… When 25 000 persons died from COVID since January. But political parties are all (!) against any constraining measure, with some even calling in a most demagogic manner for reintegrating [the few hundred] unvaccinated public health personnel in the public health system… (As a single datapoint, take the counter-example of our thrice-vaccinated daughter who caught COVID last week, most likely when working at the hospital.)

efficient measures?

When checking the infographics of the week highlighted by Nature, I came across this comparison of France and Germany for the impact of their respective vaccination mandates on health and economics. And then realised this was from a preprint from a Paris Dauphine colleague, Miquel Oliu-Barton (and co-authors). The above graphs compare the impact of governmental measures towards vaccination, short of compulsory vaccination (unfortunately).  Between Germany and France, it appears as if the measures were more effective in the latter. Which may be interpreted as either a consequence of the measures being more coercive in [unruly] France or an illustration of the higher discipline of the German society [despite the government contemplating compulsory vaccination for a while]. As an aside, I am very surprised at the higher death rate in Germany but, beside a larger percentage of people over 65 there and a lower life expectancy, the French curve is interrupted in December 2021. Looking at 2022, the peak was reached at 3.3 cases per day per million people.

Concerning the red counterfactual curves, I did not find much explanation in the preprint, apart from

“Our results are supported by the well-established econometric method of synthetic control.³⁰ We construct counterfactuals for each treated country based on a weighted average of countries that did not implement the COVID certificate and find consistent trajectories for the time period where this method is feasible, i.e., until the end of September 2021.”

and

“constructing counterfactuals ( i.e., by modelling vaccine uptake without this intervention), using innovation diffusion theory.⁶Innovation diffusion theory was introduced to model how new ideas and technologies spread”

which is not particularly helpful without further reading.

a journal of the plague year³ [beginning of the end?]

Made my first trip to Warwick this year despite the travel restrictions imposed by the omnipresent Omicron version. My flights got repeatedly cancelled, meaning I had to fly through Schipol (thanks for the Gouda cumin cheese and stroopwafelen!) and leave at more-than-early hours (even by my standards!). But had more conversations than usual, plus delivered my lecture masked-face-to-masked-face to 19 Warwick students, the first time in 709 days!

Read [in French] the two BDs of Milo Manara on Michelangelo [Merisi or Amerighi da] Caravaggio, which was a Xmas gift!, with as always great in the large scale and character drawings, if not Caravaggio’s chiaroscuro, but less in the scenario, esp. the second part and even more esp. given the agitated life of the artist. And another BD taking place in Cayenne, in 1742, whose drawings also appear in local guides.

Watched 14 Peaks: Nothing is impossible on Netflix, following Nepalese mountaineer Nirmal Purja [of Everest jam fame!] and his team as they manage to climb all 14 eight thousander peaks over 6 months. Including Shishapangma in Tibet, with the added hardship to procure a climbing permit from Chinese authorities for that mountain. The documentary focuses a wee bit too much on Purja’s persona and not enough on the team of sherpas and on the climb itself. Except for the summitings there is very little about the technical difficulties of each summit and the hardships and failed attempts. For instance, the amazing feat of first installing fixed ropes for all 14 summits is only alluded to. Despite reservations about the use of supplementary oxygen (without which, as stressed by Messner, the attempt of climbing all 8000ers in one season would have proved truly impossible and suicidal) and heliporting from one base camp to another, the enormity of the achievement of this team of sherpas remains a monument in the climbing world. (Even only considering that Everest, Lhotse and Makalu were climbed in two days total!)

vaccination in Cacao

a journal of the plague year² [closing again]

Had to cancel my third and final trip to Warwick this year as the Omicron scare had countries locking their borders (too late, most likely), meaning the UK was reinstating on entering travelers a self-seclusion period until the test results were known. Despite getting my third shot in time (with no side-effect whatsoever). And France retaliated in imposing PCR tests as well…

Read (over the Atlantic) an older novel of William Gibson, The Peripheral. Which is a rather standard cyberpunk Gibson with lots of (2021’s) brand names (at least at the beginning), a messy build-up of the (dual) universe, plenty of gadgets, a long-going form of fascination for super-lethal weapons and militarised survivalists, followed by a vague explanation of the temporal paradox of conversing with the future/past, and a rather lame closure with a shoot shoot bang bang resolution and some people getting absurdly rich… I am unsure I will get through the second novel, The Agency, which I bought at the same time, unless we manage to fly to French Guiana on Xmas day. Even though The Guardian is quite excited about it.

Watched Kan Eguchi’s The Fable after coming back from Mexico (not on the plane, when I slept most of the flight), which is cartoonesquely funny, except for lengthy fighting scenes. As it should, since directly inspired from a manga. While I missed the jokes about Osaka’s special dialect and food, it was absurdly funny! And fit for a particularly rainy weekend. The second installment, which I watched later, is darker and more disturbing…