Archive for vote

45 votes for Jensen’s inequality

Posted in Books, Statistics with tags , , , on November 27, 2019 by xi'an

Following a question on X validated as to why the mean of the log of a uniform distribution is not log(0.5), I replied with the obvious link to Jensen’s inequality and the more general if equally obvious remark that expectation was rarely invariant under transforms and ended up with an high number of up-votes on that answer. Which bemuses me given the basic question and equally basic answer..!

the future is Europe

Posted in Kids, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , on May 26, 2019 by xi'an

US elections [xkcd repost]

Posted in Books, Kids, Travel with tags , , , , , , on November 6, 2018 by xi'an

Randall Munroe of xkcd has designed this massive map of the US elections with links to all candidates and random places that I first mistook for voting stations (this would have been great!, to highlight how would-be voters can be discouraged from voting in some districts), as well as a few hidden comics and places irrelevant for the elections. (Warning: The above is a static copy!) With the great subtext that to edit the map readers need to submit their ballot before on November 7th.

tactical vote against extreme right Le Pen

Posted in Kids, pictures with tags , , , , , , , on April 23, 2017 by xi'an

Today is the first round of the French presidential elections, which readers could guess were coming from the flurry of anti-Le Pen posts in the past weeks. While I am not particularly close to any candidate’s program and find the flow of unrealistic promises that keeps coming as The Day comes closer both embarrassing and pathetic, or maybe because of this, I decided to vote in a minimax manner, trying to minimise the maximum damage, i.e., casting a vote for the candidate the most likely to stop Le Pen and her xenophobic and economically nonsensical programme if she reaches the second round of the election. As it seems likely she will. This means voting for Emmanuel Macron, who stands at the centre of the political spectrum, is fairly liberal on societal issues may be the most pro-European of all candidates, and managed to gather  a wide range of supports. And will stand a fair chance to win the second round if he reaches it, contrary to the radical Mélanchon. Everything being chaotic about this election, this remains a big if until tonight… Go vote, if you can!

major confUSion

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , on November 19, 2016 by xi'an

crossing the Seine in RER C near Maison de la Radio, Nov. 09, 2012In a recent evening talk-show on France Inter, the French national public radio, the debate was about the [bad] surprise election of the donald and the fact that the media had missed the result, (self-)blaming a disconnection with the “real” country. One of the discussants, Julia Cagé, Professor of Economics at Science Po’, started the discussion with the amazing confusion [at 5’55”] between the probability that Hillary Clinton would win [evaluated at 84% on the last day] and the percentage of votes in her favour [which was around that figure in Manhattan]…

On a related if minor theme, my post on Flaxman et al.’s early [if preliminary] analysis of the said election got so many views that it became the most popular post for 2016! (If not competing with Ross Ihaka’s call to simply start over with R!)

And yet another related entry today in Libération, blaming the disastrous result partly on the social media and their algorithms (again!) that favour items of information (or dis-information) from the same perspective and do not rank those items by their reliability… The author of the tribune is an econometrician at Essec, but there is no methodological content in this ideological entry that seems to call for a super-monitor which would impose (how?) diversity and (which?) ranking on social media. A post-truth era, for sure! Shifting the blame from the deplorable voters themselves to anything else…