Archive for Washington State

a Bayesian interpretation of FDRs?

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on April 12, 2018 by xi'an

This week, I happened to re-read John Storey’ 2003 “The positive discovery rate: a Bayesian interpretation and the q-value”, because I wanted to check a connection with our testing by mixture [still in limbo] paper. I however failed to find what I was looking for because I could not find any Bayesian flavour in the paper apart from an FRD expressed as a “posterior probability” of the null, in the sense that the setting was one of opposing two simple hypotheses. When there is an unknown parameter common to the multiple hypotheses being tested, a prior distribution on the parameter makes these multiple hypotheses connected. What makes the connection puzzling is the assumption that the observed statistics defining the significance region are independent (Theorem 1). And it seems to depend on the choice of the significance region, which should be induced by the Bayesian modelling, not the opposite. (This alternative explanation does not help either, maybe because it is on baseball… Or maybe because the sentence “If a player’s [posterior mean] is above .3, it’s more likely than not that their true average is as well” does not seem to appear naturally from a Bayesian formulation.) [Disclaimer: I am not hinting at anything wrong or objectionable in Storey’s paper, just being puzzled by the Bayesian tag!]

photography exhibit in Seattle

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , on October 4, 2016 by xi'an

For readers in the Seattle vicinity, just mentioning that a friend and climbing guide, Brittany Aäe, is holding a photograph exhibit at Caffe Vita, 4301 Fremont Avenue North, in Seattle, this month. Enjoy.

Cadence

Posted in pictures, Travel, Wines with tags , , , , , , , on December 20, 2015 by xi'an

"another local red wine with a strong personality, Seattle, Aug. 10, 2015""more details...

Browne

Posted in pictures, Travel, Wines with tags , , , , , on November 20, 2015 by xi'an

an enjoyable full-bodied wine from the Pacific North-West (Walla Walla, WA), Seatlle, Aug. 10, 2015"more details..."

climbing in Mazama, WA

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , , , , on September 12, 2015 by xi'an

We spent the last few days of our Washington State vacations in Mazama, last hamlet up the MethowmadXama Valley and I found upon arrival that one of the four houses there hosted a mountaineering store and a climbing guide company! With too little time to organise a whole day climb of the nearby Liberty Bells, I spent a short morning with Brittany climbing a nearby bolted cliff called Fun Rock. Thanks to Brittany’s efficiency, I managed to climb six pitches, including two chimneys, which I particularly affectionate!, and a slightly more challenging route in the upper fives. I was very glad to work with Brittany, who is an amazing young woman now full time mountain guide and running coach, besides being a terrific climber and long-distance runner. Her website, Magnetic North, is definitely worth a visit….