Archive for Washington State

a Bayesian interpretation of FDRs?

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on April 12, 2018 by xi'an

This week, I happened to re-read John Storey’ 2003 “The positive discovery rate: a Bayesian interpretation and the q-value”, because I wanted to check a connection with our testing by mixture [still in limbo] paper. I however failed to find what I was looking for because I could not find any Bayesian flavour in the paper apart from an FRD expressed as a “posterior probability” of the null, in the sense that the setting was one of opposing two simple hypotheses. When there is an unknown parameter common to the multiple hypotheses being tested, a prior distribution on the parameter makes these multiple hypotheses connected. What makes the connection puzzling is the assumption that the observed statistics defining the significance region are independent (Theorem 1). And it seems to depend on the choice of the significance region, which should be induced by the Bayesian modelling, not the opposite. (This alternative explanation does not help either, maybe because it is on baseball… Or maybe because the sentence “If a player’s [posterior mean] is above .3, it’s more likely than not that their true average is as well” does not seem to appear naturally from a Bayesian formulation.) [Disclaimer: I am not hinting at anything wrong or objectionable in Storey’s paper, just being puzzled by the Bayesian tag!]

photography exhibit in Seattle

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , on October 4, 2016 by xi'an

For readers in the Seattle vicinity, just mentioning that a friend and climbing guide, Brittany Aäe, is holding a photograph exhibit at Caffe Vita, 4301 Fremont Avenue North, in Seattle, this month. Enjoy.

Cadence

Posted in pictures, Travel, Wines with tags , , , , , , , on December 20, 2015 by xi'an

"another local red wine with a strong personality, Seattle, Aug. 10, 2015""more details...

Browne

Posted in pictures, Travel, Wines with tags , , , , , on November 20, 2015 by xi'an

an enjoyable full-bodied wine from the Pacific North-West (Walla Walla, WA), Seatlle, Aug. 10, 2015"more details..."

climbing in Mazama, WA

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , , , , on September 12, 2015 by xi'an

We spent the last few days of our Washington State vacations in Mazama, last hamlet up the MethowmadXama Valley and I found upon arrival that one of the four houses there hosted a mountaineering store and a climbing guide company! With too little time to organise a whole day climb of the nearby Liberty Bells, I spent a short morning with Brittany climbing a nearby bolted cliff called Fun Rock. Thanks to Brittany’s efficiency, I managed to climb six pitches, including two chimneys, which I particularly affectionate!, and a slightly more challenging route in the upper fives. I was very glad to work with Brittany, who is an amazing young woman now full time mountain guide and running coach, besides being a terrific climber and long-distance runner. Her website, Magnetic North, is definitely worth a visit….

no country for ‘Og snaps?!

Posted in Mountains, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , on August 30, 2015 by xi'an

A few days ago, I got an anonymous comment complaining about my tendency to post pictures “no one is interested in” on the ‘Og and suggesting I moved them to another electronic media like Twitter or Instagram as to avoid readers having to sort through the blog entries for statistics related ones, to separate the wheat from the chaff… While my first reaction was (unsurprisingly) one of irritation, a more constructive one is to point out to all (un)interested readers that they can always subscribe by RSS to the Statistics category (and skip the chaff), just like R bloggers only post my R related entries. Now, if more ‘Og’s readers find the presumably increasing flow of pictures a nuisance, just let me know and I will try to curb this avalanche of pixels… Not certain that I succeed, though!

walking the PCT

Posted in Books, Kids, Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , , , on August 29, 2015 by xi'an

The last book I read in the hospital was wild, by Cheryl Strayed, which was about walking the Pacific Crest Trail (PCT) as a regenerating experience. The book was turned into a movie this year. I did not like the book very much and did not try to watch the film, but when I realised my vacation rental would bring me a dozen miles from the PCT, I planned a day hike along this mythical trail… Especially since my daughter had dreams of hiking the trail one day. (Not realising at the time that Cheryl Strayed had not come that far north, but had stopped at the border between Oregon and Washington.OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA)

The hike was really great, staying on a high ridge for most of the time and offering 360⁰ views of the Eastern North Cascades (as well as forest fire smoke clouds in the distance…) Walking on the trail was very smooth as it was wide enough, with a limited gradient and hardly anyone around. Actually, we felt like intruding tourists on the trail, with our light backpacks, since the few hikers we crossed were long-distance hikers, “doing” the trail with sometimes backpacks that looked as heavy as Strayed’s original “Monster”. And sometimes with incredibly light ones. A great specificity of those people is that they all were more than ready to share their experiences and goals, with no complaint about the hardship of being on the trail for several months! And sounding more sorry than eager to reach the Canadian border and the end of the PCT in a few more dozen miles… For instance, a solitary female hiker told us of her plans to get back to the section near Lake Chelan she had missed the week before due to threatening forest fires. A great entry to the PCT, with the dream of walking a larger portion in an undefined future…