Archive for WW II

Bayesian sufficiency

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , on February 12, 2021 by xi'an

“During the past seven decades, an astonishingly large amount of effort and ingenuity has gone into the search fpr resonable answers to this question.” D. Basu

Induced by a vaguely related question on X validated, I re-read Basu’s 1977 great JASA paper on the elimination of nuisance parameters. Besides the limitations of competing definitions of conditional, partial, marginal sufficiency for the parameter of interest,  Basu discusses various notions of Bayesian (partial) sufficiency.

“After a long journey through a forest of confusing ideas and examples, we seem to have lost our way.” D. Basu

Starting with Kolmogorov’s idea (published during WW II) to impose to all marginal posteriors on the parameter of interest θ to only depend on a statistic S(x). But having to hold for all priors cancels the notion as the statistic need be sufficient jointly for θ and σ, as shown by Hájek in the early 1960’s. Following this attempt, Raiffa and Schlaifer then introduced a more restricted class of priors, namely where nuisance and interest are a priori independent. In which case a conditional factorisation theorem is a sufficient (!) condition for this Q-sufficiency.  But not necessary as shown by the N(θ·σ, 1) counter-example (when σ=±1 and θ>0). [When the prior on σ is uniform, the absolute average is Q-sufficient but is this a positive feature?] This choice of prior separation is somewhat perplexing in that it does not hold under reparameterisation.

Basu ends up with three challenges, including the multinomial M(θ·σ,½(1-θ)·(1+σ),½(1+θ)·(1-σ)), with (n¹,n²,n³) as a minimal sufficient statistic. And the joint observation of an Exponential Exp(θ) translated by σ and of an Exponential Exp(σ) translated by -θ, where the prior on σ gets eliminated in the marginal on θ.

brutally sent to Coventry

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , on February 7, 2021 by xi'an

Hitch’s tricks

Posted in Books, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on November 27, 2020 by xi'an

As I was watching the first minutes of the 1944 under-rated Lifeboat by Alfred Hitchcock (and John Steinbeck as the script writer!), a series of objects floating by the lifeboat to convey the preliminary mutual sinking of an Allied boat and a Nazi U-boat contained a cover of the New Yorker. Which while being iconic sounds like a weird inclusion, given that this is the very first issue of the magazine, in February 1925, hardly the first thing I would carry across the Atlantic at war time! Maybe being iconic was the reason to keep this issue rather than a more recent one, another mystery about the great Hitch allusions and clues interseeded throughout his films.

another book on J.B.S. Haldane [review of a book review]

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 24, 2020 by xi'an

As I noticed a NYT book review of a most recent book on J.B.S. Haldane, I realised several other books had already been written about him. From an early 1985 biography, “Haldane: the life and work of J.B.S. Haldane with special references to India” followed by a “2016 biographyPopularizing Science” along an  2009 edited book on some Haldane’s essays, “What I require from life“, all by Krishna R. Dronamraju to a 1969 biography with the cryptic title “J.B.S.“, by Richard Clarke, along with a sensational 2018 “Comrade Haldane Is Too Busy to Go on Holiday: The Genius Who Spied for Stalin” by Gavan Tredoux, depicting him as a spy for the Soviet Union during WW II. (The last author is working on a biography of Francis Galton, hopefully exonerating him of spying for the French! But a short text of him comparing Haldane and Darlington appears to support the later’s belief in racial differences in intelligence…) I also discovered that J.B.S. had written a children book, “Mr Friend Mr. Leaky“, illustrated by Quentin Blake, Roald Dahl’s illustrator. (Charlotte Franken Haldane, J.B.S.’s first wife, also wrote a considerable number of books.)

The NYT review is more a summary of Haldane’s life than an analysis of the book itself, hard as it is not to get mesmerised by the larger-than-life stature of J.B.S. It does not dwell very long on the time it took Haldane to break from the Communist Party for its adherence to the pseudo-science Lysenko (while his wife Charlotte had realised the repressive nature of the Soviet regime much earlier, which may have led to their divorce). While the review makes no mention at all of Haldane’s ideological move to the ISI in Kolkata, it concludes with “for all his failings, he was “deeply attractive during a time of shifting, murky moralities.”” [The double quotes being the review quoting the book!]

75 years later, it is more than time for full nuclear disarmament!

Posted in Kids with tags , , , , , , , , , on August 6, 2020 by xi'an