Archive for Ireland

Bayes @ NYT

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on August 8, 2020 by xi'an

A tribune in the NYT of yesterday on the importance of being Bayesian. When an epidemiologist. Tribune that was forwarded to me by a few friends (and which I missed on my addictive monitoring of the journal!). It is written by , a Canadian journalist writing about mathematics (and obviously statistics). And it brings to the general public the main motivation for adopting a Bayesian approach, namely its coherent handling of uncertainty and its ability to update in the face of new information. (Although it might be noted that other flavours of statistical analysis are also able to update their conclusions when given more data.) The COVID situation is a perfect case study in Bayesianism, in that there are so many levels of uncertainty and imprecision, from the models themselves, to the data, to the outcome of the tests, &tc. The article is journalisty, of course, but it quotes from a range of statisticians and epidemiologists, including Susan Holmes, whom I learned was quarantined 105 days in rural Portugal!, developing a hierarchical Bayes modelling of the prevalent  SEIR model, and David Spiegelhalter, discussing Cromwell’s Law (or better, humility law, for avoiding the reference to a fanatic and tyrannic Puritan who put Ireland to fire and the sword!, and had in fact very little humility for himself). Reading the comments is both hilarious (it does not take long to reach the point when Trump is mentioned, and Taleb’s stance on models and tails makes an appearance) and revealing, as many readers do not understand the meaning of Bayes’ inversion between causes and effects, or even the meaning of Jeffreys’ bar, |, as conditioning.

Xi’an street food [jatp]

Posted in pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , on October 27, 2019 by xi'an

and another step forward for Ireland!

Posted in pictures with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on October 28, 2018 by xi'an

repeal!

Posted in Kids with tags , , , , , , , , on May 24, 2018 by xi'an

dimmed Star Wars

Posted in Books, Kids, Mountains, pictures, Travel with tags , , , , , , , on December 25, 2017 by xi'an

As a familial tradition of the end of the year movie, I went with my daughter to watch the second (or eighth) movie in the series. As I had heard and read several highly positive reviews on the originality of the scenario and the sharpness of the photography, I was expecting a lot from the movie. And hence was quite disappointed by the quasi-absence of scenario (never a major strength in the series anyway!) and by the pre-teens dialogues, some situations reminding me of the worst Star Trek episodes, like the very final ludicrous scene in the space shuttle… Some parts are total failures, like the expedition to the casino planet. Or the final battle scene that lasts for evvvvver… Or the initial battle scene that lasts about as long. Or the fight with the lobsters, endless! And do not even think of mentioning the Disneyian pongs. And as usual the utter disdain for any law of physics. Like a moon going from full to crescent on the same night (minor spoiler!).  Terrible, all in all, except for the scenery of the Irish island, Skellig Michael, with its very primitive monastery, which reminded me of St Kilda… And a few actors surviving the disaster.