Archive for London

the flawed genius of William Playfair [book review]

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on March 26, 2024 by xi'an

David Bellhouse has written a new book on the history of statistics, focussing on William Playfair this time (following his fantastic book on Abraham de Moivre). The Flawed Genius of William Playfair (The Story of the Father of Statistical Graphics) got published a few months ago by the University of Toronto Press.

“[Playfair] was an ideas man whose ideas often did not come to fruition; or, when they did, they withered or exploded.” [p.121]

The impressions I retained from reading this detailed account of a perfect unknown (for me) are of a rather unpleasant, unappealing, unsuccessful, fame-seeking, inefficient, short-sighted, self-aggrandising,  bigoted, dishonest, man, running from debtors for most of his life, with jail episodes for bankruptcy, while trying to make a living from all sorts of doomed enterprises, short-lived blackmailing attempts, and mediocre books that did not sell to many. Similar to David Bellhouse’s colleague earlier wondering at the appeal of exposing such a rogue character, I am left with this lingering interrogation after finishing the book

“[Richard] Price liked what Playfair had written. He found [in 1786] Playfair to be “agreeable” and “useful”.” [p.64]

Not that I did not enjoy reading it!, as it gives a most interesting of the era between the 18th and the 19th Centuries, in particular in its detailed narration of the first months of the French Revolution of 1789, and of the impact of the Industrial Revolution on economics and politics as the birth of capitalism. The book abounds in crossing lots of historical characters, like Richard Price (Bayes’s friend who published his most famous paper), Adam Smith (whose book Playfair reprinted with poor additions), Edward Gibbons (whose book along with Smith’s inspired the title of his Inquiry Into the Permanent Causes of the Decline and Fall of Powerful and Wealthy Nations), Thomas Malthus (competing for an annotated edition of Smith’s book), not to mention the political class of Britain at the time. David Bellhouse’s book demonstrates academic and historical excellence, constantly being very detailed, with a wealth of references, documents, and definite support for or against the rumours that accompany the life and deeds of Playfair. (Frankly, rarely a name has been that inappropriate!) This includes for instance the pictures pointing out to his first (?) forged signature [p.140] and the evacuation of the myth of Playfair as a spy for the British Crown—which the Wikipedia page happily reproduces, pointing out the need for an in-depth revision of said page. Similarly, the book delivered a convincing discussion of arguments for and mostly against Playfair “being the key player in the British operation to forge [French] assignats” towards destroying its economy. A lot of the book is touching upon the then novel issue of paper money, which Playfair only and negatively considered through his own (and catastrophic) experiences. At times, the book is almost too scholarly as it makes reading less fluid than was the case his Abraham de Moivre for instance. (And obviously less than in the contemporary Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrel!)

It may be that my very relative lack of enthusiasm stems from the realisation that the story of Playfair is overall rather little connected with statistical inference, if not with descriptive statistics (albeit with a complete disregard for the quality and sources of his data), as when  publishing a Statistical Breviary on descriptive statistics for a series of countries (and surprisingly sold on Amazon!).  Or Statistical Account of the United States of America. And of course for his innovative graphical representations like the one represented on the cover of the book or the pie chart. I feel that the book is much more engaged in Playfair’s contributions to the then nascent science of economics, as for instant about the shallow and mostly misguided views of his’ on banking and running the economy, while conducting his personal finance and investments so disastrously that it negatively advertised against confidence in such views.

On a very personal level, I noticed that some graphs were provided by my friend and statistics historian Stephen Stigler [who also wrote a review of the book] while an analysis of the poor French involved in a coding scam of Playfair about Napoléon’s escape from Elba was by Christian Genest (whom I first met at a statistics conference dinner on the Lac de Neufchâtel in 1986).

[Disclaimer about potential self-plagiarism: this post or an edited version will eventually appear in my Books Review section in CHANCE. As appropriate for a book about Chance!]

 

a mere £1,500 dinner

Posted in Travel, Wines with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on February 5, 2024 by xi'an

As a one-time patron of the X on Kenilworth, I received an invitation to join the fundraising Bocuse d’Or UK gala diner, at a mere £1,500 each (with the helpful addition that 10 tickets would cost £10,500!]. Despite being partial to foie gras, buckwheat, scallops, Jerusalem artichokes, and vin jaune, methinks I will pass the offer since the wine list is not included…

Bocuse d’Or UK Fundraising Gala Menu

Canapés
Smoked duck doughnut, celeriac, Perigord [sic] black truffle
Cured trout aged in beeswax, timut pepper, pickled Potimarron, dashi jelly
Mushroom tuile, wild mushroom parfait, Douglas pine (vegan)
Seaweed tartelette, oyster and Coco bean sphere, Petrossian caviar
Cracker with Duperier [sic] foie gras, Gewürztraminer jelly, sancho pepper
Marco Zampese, Hélène Darroze at The Connaught

Shetland mussel bavaroise scented with turmeric
Lemon gel with fresh coriander and buckwheat grains
Daniel Stucki, The Lecture Room & Library at sketch

Hand-dived scallop, citrus beurre blanc and Petrossian caviar
Jean-Philippe Blondet, Alain Ducasse at The Dorchester

Megrim sole filled with truffle flavoured mousse baked in puff pastry
Vin jaune and langoustine sauce
Alain Roux, The Waterside Inn

Grass fed, 60-day dry aged beef
Jerusalem artichoke, crones, black garlic
Matt Abé, Restaurant Gordon Ramsay

‘Core apple’
Clare Smyth, CORE by Clare Smyth

“Anvil”
Caramel mousse with our miso, apple and spruce
Simon Rogan, L’Enclume

“Like a kid in a sweet shop”
Edward Cooke, The Fat Duck

a journal of the conquest, war, [not exactly] famine, and death year

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Running, Travel with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on December 11, 2023 by xi'an

Read [in French] Lesson of the Evil (悪の教典) by Yusuke Kishi, caught by the book strip including a France Inter praise…! The book and the subsequent manga and film appear to be very popular but it failed to impress me.  The trope of the assassin professor happens to be a fairly easy scenarist concept. This may be partly due to a very laborious translation into French, but the dialogues are not very credible, it is difficult to engage and develop empathy for the teenage victims (and even less for the assassin), especially after the nth murder. Hasumi’s impunity throughout his career assassin is completely unrealistic, his inner dialogue ridiculous, and the final evening of the story drawn out beyond boredom in every way. Also read the novella Winter’s Gifts by Ben Aaronovitch, an attempt at transplanting the spirit of Rivers of London to Lakes of Wisconsin. While the central character of Kimberley Reynolds is a success, with depth and wits, the story itself does not click, from the grandguignolesque monsters to the red herrings and the unconvincing resolution of the greatest menace by Kimberley. When an ice tornado strolls through your town, you don’t continue attending your pub or visiting the local library…

Cooked a lot of stir-fries both away and at home, returning to Fall veggies like cabbages and gourds, along local mushrooms. (Except in Martinique where we took advantage of ignames (yam), christophines (chayote), cooking bananas, gombos, sweet potatoes, dachines (taro), veggie chilis, and other local vegetables).

Watched Bodies, a British science-fiction series involving four detectives at different eras from 1890 till 2053 around the same incomprehensible murder, with a nice cast of diverse characters (and enjoyable London accents), but unable to stand time travel paradoxes till the very end. And obvious budget limitations that make past and future scenes somewhat limited. But, again, the actors are fantastic.

Arnak Dalalyan at the RSS Journal Webinar

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on October 15, 2023 by xi'an

My friend and CREST colleague Arnak Dalalyan will (re)present [online] a Read Paper at the RSS on 31 October with my friends Hani Doss and Alain Durmus as discussants:

‘Theoretical Guarantees for Approximate Sampling and Log-Concave Densities’

Arnak Dalalyan ENSAE Paris, France

Sampling from various kinds of distributions is an issue of paramount importance in statistics since it is often the key ingredient for constructing estimators, test procedures or confidence intervals. In many situations, exact sampling from a given distribution is impossible or computationally expensive and, therefore, one needs to resort to approximate sampling strategies. However, there is no well-developed theory providing meaningful non-asymptotic guarantees for the approximate sampling procedures, especially in high dimensional problems. The paper makes some progress in this direction by considering the problem of sampling from a distribution having a smooth and log-concave density defined on ℝᵖ⁠, for some integer p > 0. We establish non-asymptotic bounds for the error of approximating the target distribution by the distribution obtained by the Langevin Monte Carlo method and its variants. We illustrate the effectiveness of the established guarantees with various experiments. Underlying our analysis are insights from the theory of continuous time diffusion processes, which may be of interest beyond the framework of log-concave densities that are considered in the present work.

the Amazon turning negative

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , on September 17, 2023 by xi'an