David Spiegelhalter is starting a column in The Guardian about COVID-19, the first installment being about excess death statistics. Arguing rightly that it is “fairer to look at what has happened to the total number of deaths”, since this is an objective quantity (in countries with trustworthy death statistics). The discussion on how many of the excess deaths can be attributed to the pandemic is somewhat confusing, though, as little can be said with enough confidence, between the positive impact (flu deaths have plummeted, 30% less traffic deaths in France, &tc.) and the negative impact (stress, harsher economic or social conditions, &tc.) A worthy warning: the deficit in “other” deaths during the second wave is partly due to the extra deaths during the first wave, esp. for fragile and elderly persons.
Archive for USA
Xs Xplain’d
Posted in Statistics with tags coronavirus epidemics, COVID-19, David Spiegelhalter, demographics, excess deaths, mortality chart, Our World in Data, pandemic, The Guardian, UK, USA on January 31, 2021 by xi'anit was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness
Posted in Kids, Travel with tags abortion, Catholic Church, Joe Biden, legalisation of abortion, Poland, reproductive rights, Strajk Kobiet, Thailand, US politics, USA on January 30, 2021 by xi'an
it was the best of times, it was the worst of times
Posted in Books, pictures, Travel with tags 6 Frbruary 1934, Agent Orange, Capitol, Charles Dickens, Croix-de-Feu, Donald Trump, French history, French politics, Georgia, Joe Biden, Paris, Tale of Two Cities, US elections 2020, US politics, USA, Washington D.C. on January 7, 2021 by xi'an
solidarność z Polkami
Posted in Statistics with tags abortion, eugenics, legalisation of abortion, Liechtenstein, Malta, my body my choice, Poland, reproductive rights, Solidarność, Supreme Court, USA on October 30, 2020 by xi'an
abortion data, France vs. USA
Posted in Kids, Statistics, Travel with tags anti-abortion organisations, Brett Kavanaugh, France, Guttmacher Institute, health care, Le Monde, official statistics, Planning Familial, public health system, reproductive rights, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, USA on October 5, 2020 by xi'an
As Le Monde pointed out at a recent report on 2019 abortions in France from Direction de la recherche, des études, de l’évaluation et des statistiques (Drees), showing an consistent rise in the number of abortions in France since 1995, with a rate of 15.6 abortions for 1000 women and the number around a third of the live births that year, I started wondering at the corresponding figures in the USA, given the much more restrictive conditions there. Judging from this on-line report by the Guttmacher Institute, the overall 2017 figures are not so different in both countries: while the abortion rate fell to 13.5‰, and the abortion/life birth ratio to 22%, the recent spike in abortion restrictions for most US States did not seem to impact considerably the rates, even though this is a nationwide average, hiding state disparities (like a 35% drop in Iowa or Alabama [and a 62% drop in Delaware, despite no change in the number of clinics or in the legislation]). In addition, France did not apparently made conditions more difficult recently (most abortions occur locally and the abortion rate is inversely correlated with income) and French (official) figures include off-clinic drug-induced abortions, while the Guttmacher institute census does not. The incoming (hasty) replacement of Judge Ruth Bader Ginsberg in the US Supreme Court may alas induce a dramatic turn in these figures if a clear anti-abortion majority emerges…
