the story of Gertrud and Auguste Macé

Posted in Uncategorized with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , on August 6, 2020 by xi'an

The discussions about the links between early statistics and eugenism brought back to memory the tragic story of a German-Norman couple, friends of my grandparents, Gertrud(e) and Auguste Macé, whom I met in the mid 1980’s. Auguste Macé was a school friend of my grandmother, born near the harbour city of Granville, Manche and, like my grandparents,  a war orphan, son of a French conscript killed in combat during WW I. During WW II, when Nazi Germany promptly invaded France in the Spring of 1940, Auguste Macé was part of the millions of French conscripts captured by German troops and sent to a stalag, in North-Eastern Germany (Prussia), where he was made to work in farms missing their workforce conscripted to war. In one of these farms, he met Gertrud, daughter of the farm owners, they fell in love, and Gertrud eventually got pregnant. When her pregnancy was revealed, Auguste was sent to another POW camp. And, while Gertrud was able to give birth to a baby boy, she was dreadfully punished by the Nazis for it: as she had broken their racial purity laws, she was sterilised and prevented from having further children, presumably staying in her parents’ farm. At the end of WW II, Auguste was freed by Soviet troops and went searching for Gertrud. It took him around six months of traveling in the chaotic post-war Germany, but he eventually found both her and their son! They then went back to Auguste’s farm, in Normandy, where they spent the rest of their life, with further hardships like the neighbourhood hostility to a Franco-German couple, lost their young adult son in circumstances I cannot remember, and tragically ending their life together in a car accident in 1988, on a trip to Germany… [When remembering this couple, I have been searching on-line for more information about them but apart from finding the military card of Auguste’s father and Auguste’s 1988 death record by INSEE, I could not spot any link in birth or wedding certificates or in the 98 lists of WW II French POWs. Where I could not find my great-uncle, either.]

computational advances in approximate Bayesian methods [at JSM]

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , on August 5, 2020 by xi'an

Another broadcast for an ABC (or rather ABM) session at JSM, organised and chaired by Robert Kohn, taking place tomorrow at 10am, ET, i.e., 2pm GMT, with variational and ABC talks:

454 * Thu, 8/6/2020, 10:00 AM – 11:50 AM Virtual
Computational Advances in Approximate Bayesian Methods — Topic Contributed Papers
Section on Bayesian Statistical Science
Organizer(s): Robert Kohn, University of New South Wales
Chair(s): Robert Kohn, University of New South Wales
10:05 AM Sparse Variational Inference: Bayesian Coresets from Scratch
Trevor Campbell, University of British Columbia
10:25 AM Fast Variational Approximation for Multivariate Factor Stochastic Volatility Model
David Gunawan, University of Wollongong; Robert Kohn, University of New South Wales; David Nott, National University of Singapore
10:45 AM High-Dimensional Copula Variational Approximation Through Transformation
Michael Smith, University of Melbourne; Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Monash University ; David Nott, National University of Singapore
11:05 AM Mini-Batch Metropolis-Hastings MCMC with Reversible SGLD Proposal
Rachel Wang, University of Sydney; Tung-Yu Wu, Stanford University; Wing Hung Wong, Stanford University
11:25 AM Weighted Approximate Bayesian Computation via Large Deviations Theory
Cecilia Viscardi, University of Florence; Michele Boreale, University of Florence; Fabio Corradi, University of Florence; Antonietta Mira, Università della Svizzera Italiana (USI)
11:45 AM Floor Discussion

support Beirut through the Lebanese Red X

Posted in pictures with tags , , , , , , on August 5, 2020 by xi'an

additional deaths in England & Wales

Posted in Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , on August 5, 2020 by xi'an

Source: United Kingdom Office for National Statistics

David Spiegelhalter wrote another piece for The Guardian about the number of COVID-related deaths in Britain, remarking that with the objective statistic of excess death, the kingdom is doing worse than any other country, including Belgium which is reported as the worst performer in the fight again the pandemic based on its reported COVID death numbers. David also shows the proper degree of caution in providing reasons for this terrible record rather than starting the blame game. One factor differentiating England from other countries like Italy being the spread of its COVID clusters, partly due to the higher mobility of the population, in particular its travelling for vacations. (The comparison also reveals a stable higher level of overall mortality in the UK when compared with south-west EU countries, except Portugal. It surprisingly misses Germany, which is unlikely to be a country with missing statistics!)

Cher sunrise [jatp]

Posted in pictures, Running, Travel, Wines with tags , , , , , , , , on August 4, 2020 by xi'an