## Archive for University of Warwick

## at The X

Posted in pictures, Running, Travel, Wines with tags England, Italian wines, Kenilworth, MIchelin starred restaurant, Primitivo, Puglia, The Cross, University of Warwick on March 15, 2015 by xi'an## snapshot from Gibbet Hill

Posted in pictures, Travel, University life with tags England, Gibbet Hill, sculpture, sunset, University of Warwick on March 5, 2015 by xi'an## accelerating Metropolis-Hastings algorithms by delayed acceptance

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags Andrew Gelman, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, MALA, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, Montréal, NIPS, Peskun ordering, prefetching, University of Warwick on March 5, 2015 by xi'an**M**arco Banterle, Clara Grazian, Anthony Lee, and myself just arXived our paper “Accelerating Metropolis-Hastings algorithms by delayed acceptance“, which is an major revision and upgrade of our “Delayed acceptance with prefetching” paper of last June. Paper that we submitted at the last minute to NIPS, but which did not get accepted. The difference with this earlier version is the inclusion of convergence results, in particular that, while the original Metropolis-Hastings algorithm dominates the delayed version in Peskun ordering, the later can improve upon the original for an appropriate choice of the early stage acceptance step. We thus included a new section on optimising the design of the delayed step, by picking the optimal scaling à la Roberts, Gelman and Gilks (1997) in the first step and by proposing a ranking of the factors in the Metropolis-Hastings acceptance ratio that speeds up the algorithm. The algorithm thus got adaptive. Compared with the earlier version, we have not pursued the second thread of prefetching as much, simply mentioning that prefetching and delayed acceptance could be merged. We have also included a section on the alternative suggested by Philip Nutzman on the ‘Og of using a growing ratio rather than individual terms, the advantage being the probability of acceptance stabilising when the number of terms grows, with the drawback being that expensive terms are not always computed last. In addition to our logistic and mixture examples, we also study in this version the MALA algorithm, since we can postpone computing the ratio of the proposals till the second step. The gain observed in one experiment is of the order of a ten-fold higher efficiency. By comparison, and in answer to one comment on Andrew’s blog, we did not cover the HMC algorithm, since the preliminary acceptance step would require the construction of a proxy to the acceptance ratio, in order to avoid computing a costly number of derivatives in the discretised Hamiltonian integration.

## the fundamental incompatibility of HMC and data subsampling

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags Bayesian computing, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, leapfrog generator, limited information inference, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, subsampling, University of Warwick on February 23, 2015 by xi'an**L**ast week, Michael Betancourt, from Warwick, arXived a neat wee note on the fundamental difficulties in running HMC on a subsample of the original data. The core message is that using only one fraction of the data to run an HMC with the hope that it will preserve the stationary distribution does not work. The only way to recover from the bias is to use a Metropolis-Hastings step using the whole data, a step that both kills most of the computing gain and has very low acceptance probabilities. Even the strategy that subsamples for each step in a single trajectory fails: there cannot be a significant gain in time without a significant bias in the outcome. Too bad..! Now, there are ways of accelerating HMC, for instance by parallelising the computation of gradients but, just as in any other approach (?), the information provided by the whole data is only available when looking at the whole data.

## Alan Turing Institute

Posted in Books, pictures, Running, Statistics, University life with tags Alan Turing, Alan Turing Institute, British Library, London, UCL, United Kingdom, University of Cambridge, University of Edinburgh, University of Oxford, University of Warwick on February 10, 2015 by xi'an

**T**he University of Warwick is one of the five UK Universities (Cambridge, Edinburgh, Oxford, Warwick and UCL) to be part of the new Alan Turing Institute.To quote from the University press release, “The Institute will build on the UK’s existing academic strengths and help position the country as a world leader in the analysis and application of big data and algorithm research. Its headquarters will be based at the British Library at the centre of London’s Knowledge Quarter.” The Institute will gather researchers from mathematics, statistics, computer sciences, and connected fields towards collegial and focussed research , which means in particular that it will hire a fairly large number of researchers in stats and machine-learning in the coming months. The Department of Statistics at Warwick was strongly involved in answering the call for the Institute and my friend and colleague Mark Girolami will the University leading figure at the Institute, alas meaning that we will meet even less frequently! Note that the call for the Chair of the Alan Turing Institute is now open, with deadline on March 15. [As a personal aside, I find the recognition that Alan Turing’s genius played a pivotal role in cracking the codes that helped us win the Second World War. It is therefore only right that our country’s top universities are chosen to lead this new institute named in his honour.

by the Business Secretary does not absolve the legal system that drove Turing to suicide….]

## Bayesian computation: fore and aft

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags ABC, adaptive MCMC methods, Bayesian Analysis, Bayesian computation, Bayesian optimisation, expectation-propagation, MCMC algorithms, pseudo-marginal MCMC, Statistics and Computing, survey, University of Bristol, University of Warwick, variational Bayes methods on February 6, 2015 by xi'an**W**ith my friends Peter Green (Bristol), Krzysztof Łatuszyński (Warwick) and Marcello Pereyra (Bristol), we just arXived the first version of “Bayesian computation: a perspective on the current state, and sampling backwards and forwards”, which first title was the title of this post. This is a survey of our own perspective on Bayesian computation, from what occurred in the last 25 years [a lot!] to what could occur in the near future [a lot as well!]. Submitted to Statistics and Computing towards the special 25th anniversary issue, as announced in an earlier post.. Pulling strength and breadth from each other’s opinion, we have certainly attained more than the sum of our initial respective contributions, but we are welcoming comments about bits and pieces of importance that we miss and even more about promising new directions that are not posted in this survey. (A warning that is should go with most of my surveys is that my input in this paper will not differ by a large margin from ideas expressed here or in previous surveys.)

## the latest Significance: Astrostats, black swans, and pregnant drivers [and zombies]

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags antifragile, astrostatistics, bolides, cosmology, multiverse, Nassim Taleb, pregnancy, Roberto Trotta, Significance, University of Warwick, zombies on February 4, 2015 by xi'an**R**eading Significance is always an enjoyable moment, when I can find time to skim through the articles (before my wife gets hold of it!). This time, I lost my copy between my office and home, and borrowed it from Tom Nichols at Warwick with four mornings to read it during breakfast. This December issue is definitely interesting, as it contains several introduction articles on astro- and cosmo-statistics! One thing I had not noticed before is how a large fraction of the papers is written by authors of books, giving a quick entry or interview about their book. For instance, I found out that Roberto Trotta had written a general public book called the Edge of the Sky (*All You Need to Know About the All-There-Is*) which exposes the fundamentals of cosmology through the 1000 most common words in the English Language.. So *Universe* is replaced with *All-There-Is*! I can understand and to some extent applaud the intention, but it nonetheless makes for a painful read, judging from the excerpt, when *researcher* and *telescope* are not part of the accepted vocabulary. Reading the corresponding article in Significance let me a bit bemused at the reason provided for the existence of a multiverse, i.e., of multiple replicas of our universe, all with different conditions: multiplying the universes makes our more likely, while it sounds almost impossible on its own! This sounds like a very *frequentist* argument… and I am not even certain it would convince a frequentist. The other articles in this special astrostatistics section were of a more statistical nature, from estimating the number of galaxies to the chances of a big asteroid impact. Even though I found the graphical representation of the meteorite impacts in the past century because of the impact drawing in the background. However, when I checked the link to Carlo Zapponi’s website, I found the picture was a still of a neat animation of meteorites falling since the first report.