**T**his paper was arXived today by Martino and Louzada. It starts from the adaptive rejection sampling algorithm of Gilks and Wild (1993), which provided an almost automatic random generator for univariate log-concave target probability densities. By creating an envelope of the true target based on convexity. This algorithm was at the core of BUGS in its early days. And makes a good example of accept reject algorithm that I often use in class. It is however not so popular nowadays because of the unidimensional constraint. And because it is not particularly adequate for simulating a *single* realisation from a given target. As is the case when used in a Gibbs sampler. The authors only consider here the issue of the growing cost of running the adaptive rejection sampling algorithm, which is due to the update of the envelope at each rejection. They however fail to quantify this increase, which involves (a) finding the interval where the current rejection lies, among n existing intervals, which is of order O(n), and (b) creating both modified envelopes on both new intervals, which is of order O(1). The proposal of the authors, called cheap adaptive rejection sampling, settles for a fixed number τ of support points (and intervals), solely swapping a rejected point with the closest support point when this improves the acceptance rate. The test for swapping involves first computing the alternative target (on a pair of intervals) and the corresponding normalising constant, while swapping the rejected point with the closest support point involves finding the closest point, which is of order O(log τ). I am rather surprised that the authors do not even mention the execution time orders, resorting instead to a simulation where the gain brought by their proposal is not overwhelming. There is also an additional cost for figuring out the fixed number τ of support points, another issue not mentioned in the paper.

## Archive for Gibbs sampler

## adaptive rejection sampling with fixed number of nodes

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags accept-reject algorithm, ARS, BUGS, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, Wally Gilks on October 8, 2015 by xi'an## amazing Gibbs sampler

Posted in Books, pictures, R, Statistics, University life with tags bayesm, convergence assessment, Gibbs sampler, Jean-Michel Marin, Markov chain Monte Carlo, mixtures, R on February 19, 2015 by xi'an**W**hen playing with Peter Rossi’s bayesm R package during a visit of Jean-Michel Marin to Paris, last week, we came up with the above Gibbs outcome. The setting is a Gaussian mixture model with three components in dimension 5 and the prior distributions are standard conjugate. In this case, with 500 observations and 5000 Gibbs iterations, the Markov chain (for one component of one mean of the mixture) has two highly distinct regimes: one that revolves around the true value of the parameter, 2.5, and one that explores a much broader area (which is associated with a much smaller value of the component weight). What we found amazing is the Gibbs ability to entertain both regimes, simultaneously.

## aperiodic Gibbs sampler

Posted in Books, Kids, pictures, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags aperiodicity, convergence, cross validated, Gibbs sampler, Markov chain, MCMC algorithms, Monte Carlo Statistical Methods, skeleton chain on February 11, 2015 by xi'an**A** question on Cross Validated led me to realise I had never truly considered the issue of periodic Gibbs samplers! In MCMC, non-aperiodic chains are a minor nuisance in that the skeleton trick of randomly subsampling the Markov chain leads to a aperiodic Markov chain. (The picture relates to the skeleton!) Intuitively, while the systematic Gibbs sampler has a tendency to non-reversibility, it seems difficult to imagine a sequence of full conditionals that would force the chain away from the current value..!In the discrete case, given that the current state of the Markov chain has positive probability for the target distribution, the conditional probabilities are all positive as well and hence the Markov chain can stay at its current value after one Gibbs cycle, with positive probabilities, which means strong aperiodicity. In the continuous case, a similar argument applies by considering a neighbourhood of the current value. (Incidentally, the same person asked a question about the absolute continuity of the Gibbs kernel. Being confused by our chapter on the topic!!!)

## Bangalore workshop [ಬೆಂಗಳೂರು ಕಾರ್ಯಾಗಾರ]

Posted in pictures, R, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life, Wines with tags auxiliary variable, Bangalore, demarginalisation, Gibbs sampler, IFCAM, Indian Institute of Science, unbiased estimation on July 31, 2014 by xi'an**S**econd day at the Indo-French Centre for Applied Mathematics and the workshop. Maybe not the most exciting day in terms of talks (as I missed the first two plenary sessions by (a) oversleeping and (b) running across the campus!). However I had a neat talk with another conference participant that led to [what I think are] interesting questions… (And a very good meal in a local restaurant as the guest house had not booked me for dinner!)

**T**o wit: given a target like

the simulation of λ can be demarginalised into the simulation of

where **z** is a latent (and artificial) variable. This means a Gibbs sampler simulating λ given z and z given λ can produce an outcome from the target (*). Interestingly, another completion is to consider that the z_{i}‘s are U(0,y_{i}) and to see the quantity

as an unbiased estimator of the target. What’s quite intriguing is that the quantity remains the same but with different motivations: (a) demarginalisation versus unbiasedness and (b) z_{i} ∼ Exp(λ) versus z_{i} ∼ U(0,y_{i}). The stationary is the same, as shown by the graph below, the core distributions are [formally] the same, … but the reasoning deeply differs.

**O**bviously, since unbiased estimators of the likelihood can be justified by auxiliary variable arguments, this is not in fine a big surprise. Still, I had not thought of the analogy between demarginalisation and unbiased likelihood estimation previously. Continue reading

## a day for comments

Posted in Mountains, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags AISTATS 2014, Bayesian variable selection, Brad Carlin, Cuillin ridge, Gaussian mixture, Gibbs sampler, hierarchical models, Iceland, ICML, Langevin MCMC algorithm, MCMC, Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, mixtures, model complexity, penalisation, reference priors, Reykjavik, RJMCMC, Russian doll, Scotland, sequential Monte Carlo, Sid Chib, Skye, speedup, spike-and-slab prior, variable dimension models on April 21, 2014 by xi'an**A**s I was flying over Skye (with [maybe] a first if hazy perspective on the Cuillin ridge!) to Iceland, three long sets of replies to some of my posts appeared on the ‘Og:

- Dan Simpson replied to my comments of last Tuesday about his PC construction;
- Arnaud Doucet precised some issues about his adaptive subsampling paper;
- Amandine Schreck clarified why I had missed some points in her Bayesian variable selection paper;
- Randal Douc defended the efficiency of using Carlin and Chib (1995) method for mixture simulation.

Thanks to them for taking the time to answer my musings…

## adaptive subsampling for MCMC

Posted in pictures, Statistics, Travel with tags acceptance rate, Brussels, Gibbs sampler, Hoeffding, ICML, Leuven, MCMC, MCQMC2014, Metropolis-Hastings algorithms, Paris, sequential Monte Carlo, speedup on April 15, 2014 by xi'an

“At equilibrium, we thus should not expect gains of several orders of magnitude.”

**A**s was signaled to me several times during the MCqMC conference in Leuven, Rémi Bardenet, Arnaud Doucet and Chris Holmes (all from Oxford) just wrote a short paper for the proceedings of ICML on a way to speed up Metropolis-Hastings by reducing the number of terms one computes in the likelihood ratio involved in the acceptance probability, i.e.

The observations appearing in this likelihood ratio are a random subsample from the original sample. Even though this leads to an unbiased estimator of the true log-likelihood sum, this approach is not justified on a pseudo-marginal basis à la Andrieu-Roberts (2009). (Writing this in the train back to Paris, I am not convinced this approach is in fact applicable to this proposal as the likelihood itself is not estimated in an unbiased manner…)

**I**n the paper, the quality of the approximation is evaluated by Hoeffding’s like inequalities, which serves as the basis for a stopping rule on the number of terms eventually evaluated in the random subsample. In fine, the method uses a sequential procedure to determine if enough terms are used to take the decision and the probability to take the same decision as with the whole sample is bounded from below. The sequential nature of the algorithm requires to either recompute the vector of likelihood terms for the previous value of the parameter or to store all of them for deriving the partial ratios. While the authors adress the issue of self-evaluating whether or not this complication is worth the effort, I wonder (from my train seat) why they focus so much on recovering the same decision as with the complete likelihood ratio and the same uniform. It would suffice to get the same distribution for the decision (an alternative that is easier to propose than to create of course). I also (idly) wonder if a Gibbs version would be manageable, i.e. by changing only some terms in the likelihood ratio at each iteration, in which case the method could be exact… (I found the above quote quite relevant as, in an alternative technique we are constructing with Marco Banterle, the speedup is particularly visible in the warmup stage.) Hence another direction in this recent flow of papers attempting to speed up MCMC methods against the incoming tsunami of “Big Data” problems.

## Seminar in Nottingham

Posted in Kids, pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags 4550 Miles from Dehli, English train, Gibbs sampler, Sherwood Forest, University of Nottingham, Ye Olde Trip to Jerusalem on March 26, 2014 by xi'an**L**ast Thursday, I gave a seminar in Nottingham, the true birthplace of the Gibbs sampler!, and I had a quite enjoyable half-day of scientific discussions in the Department of Statistics, with a fine evening tasting a local ale in the oldest (?) inn in England (Ye Olde Trip to Jerusalem) and sampling Indian dishes at 4550 Miles [plus or minus epsilon, since the genuine distance is 4200 miles) from Dehli, plus a short morning run on the very green campus. In particular, I discussed with Theo Kypraios and Simon Preston parallel ABC and their recent paper in Statistics and Computing, their use of the splitting technique of Neiswanger et al. I discussed earlier but intended here towards a better ABC approximation since (a) each term in the product could correspond to a single observation and (b) hence no summary statistic was needed and a zero tolerance could be envisioned. The paper discusses how to handle samples from terms in a product of densities, either by a Gaussian approximation or by a product of kernel estimates. And mentions connections with expectation propagation (EP), albeit not at the ABC level.

**A** minor idea that came to me during this discussion was to check whether or not a reparameterisation towards a uniform prior was a good idea: the plus of a uniform prior was that the power discussion was irrelevant, making both versions of the parallel MCMC algorithm coincide. The minus was not the computational issue since most priors are from standard families, with easily invertible cdfs, but rather why this was supposed to make a difference. When writing this on the train to Oxford, I started wondering as an ABC implementation is impervious to this reparameterisation. Indeed, simulate θ from π and pseudo-data given θ versus simulate μ from uniform and pseudo-data given T(μ) does not make a difference in the simulated pseudo-sample, hence in the distance selected θ’s, and still in one case the power does not matter while in the other case it does..!

**A**nother discussion I had during my visit led me to conclude a bit hastily that a thesis topic I had suggested to a new PhD student a few months ago had already been considered locally and earlier, although it ended up as a different, more computational than conceptual, perspective (so not all was lost for my student!). In a wider discussion around lunch, we also had an interesting foray on possible alternatives to Bayes factors and their shortcomings, which was a nice preparation to my seminar on giving up posterior probabilities for posterior error estimates. And an opportunity to mention the arXival of a proper scoring rules paper by Phil Dawid, Monica Musio and Laura Ventura, related with the one I had blogged about after the Padova workshop. And then again about a connected paper with Steve Fienberg. This lunch discussion even included some (mild) debate about Murray Aitkin’s integrated likelihood.

**A**s a completely irrelevant aside, this trip gave me the opportunity of a “pilgrimage” to Birmingham New Street train station, 38 years after “landing” for the first time in Britain! And to experience *a fresco* the multiple delays and apologies of East Midlands trains (*“we’re sorry we had to wait for this oil train in York”, “we have lost more time since B’ham”, “running a 37 minutes delay now”, “we apologize for the delay, due to trespassing”, *…), the only positive side being that delayed trains made delayed connections possible!