## turn-key and scalable synchronous distributed MCMC algorithm

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , on April 29, 2022 by xi'an

Last week, I attended a Lagrange seminar where Vincent Plassier presented a ICML²¹ paper he had co-authored with Maxime Vono, Alain Durmus, and Eric Moulines. Aiming at distributed MCMC algorithms that operate on several machines, with a target distribution that breaks as a target

$\int\prod_{i=1}^b \pi_i(\theta,z_i)\,\text d\mathbf{z}=\prod_{i=1}^b e^{U_i(A_i\theta)}$

where θ is common to all terms. And each term in the product can (only) be computed locally. This setup is obviously the same as for the embarrassingly parallel approaches of Neiswanger et al. (2014) and Scott et al. (2016). And it follows an earlier proposal of Vono et al. (2020), which appears as a full Gibbs algorithm on the augmented parameters (θ,z), assuming each term is a conditional density in the latent z’s. Which requires constant communications between the b workers and the central “master” node when θ is concerned. The ICML²¹ paper overcomes this difficulty by defining an approximate target with a Normal component in z. Meaning that the (approximate) conditional distribution of θ given the latent z is Normal, i.e. considering the augmented joint

$\prod_{i=1}^b\exp\left\{u_i(z_i)-\rho_i||z_i-A_i\theta||^2\right\}$

but despite the Gaussian aspect, this is not always practical:

“When d [is large], this Gibbs sampling scheme unfortunately leads to prohibitive computational costs and hence prevents its practical use for general Bayesian inference problems.”

The authors then move to simulating from several Langevin step, more specifically running one move of the Euler-Maruyama discretisation scheme of the overdamped Langevin stochastic differential equation. Communication with the central node is then reduced. The paper proposes a proof of convergence in this unusual (since overdamped) setup. As well as bounds on the bias due to the inclusion of the latent variables. They also manage to find the required scaling of the various parameters involved (Normal variance, discretisation scale, Langevin runs) to achieve convergence, which I find rather remarkable. The table at the top illustrates the comparison with earlier methods, whenever available.

## ensemble Metropolis-Hastings

Posted in Books, Kids, Statistics with tags , , , , , on October 14, 2021 by xi'an

A question on X validated about ensemble MCMC samplers had me try twice to justify the Metropolis-Hasting ratio the authors used. To recap, ensemble sampling moves a cloud of points (just like our bouncy particle sampler) one point X at a time by using another point Z as a pivot or origin and moving randomly X along the line [XZ]. In the paper,  the distribution of the rescaling is symmetric in the sense that f(z)=f(1/z). I indeed started by perceiving the basic step of the sampler as a Metropolis-within-Gibbs step along a random direction. But it did not work as the direction depends on the current X. I then wondered at a possible importance sampling interpretation compensating for the change of scale, but it was leading to the wrong power anyway. Before hitting the fact that this was actually a change of radius in the space with origin Z, leaving the angular coordinates invariant. Which explained for the power (n-1) in the Metropolis ratio, in agreement with a switch to polar coordinates.

## Bayesian GANs [#2]

Posted in Books, pictures, R, Statistics with tags , , , , , , , , , , , , on June 27, 2018 by xi'an

As an illustration of the lack of convergence of the Gibbs sampler applied to the two “conditionals” defined in the Bayesian GANs paper discussed yesterday, I took the simplest possible example of a Normal mean generative model (one parameter) with a logistic discriminator (one parameter) and implemented the scheme (during an ISBA 2018 session). With flat priors on both parameters. And a Normal random walk as Metropolis-Hastings proposal. As expected, since there is no stationary distribution associated with the Markov chain, simulated chains do not exhibit a stationary pattern,

And they eventually reach an overflow error or a trapping state as the log-likelihood gets approximately to zero (red curve).

Too bad I missed the talk by Shakir Mohammed yesterday, being stuck on the Edinburgh by-pass at rush hour!, as I would have loved to hear his views about this rather essential issue…

## amazing appendix

Posted in Books, Statistics, Travel, University life with tags , , , , , , , , , , , on February 13, 2018 by xi'an

In the first appendix of the 1995 Statistical Science paper of Besag, Green, Higdon and Mengersen, on MCMC, “Bayesian Computation and Stochastic Systems”, stands a fairly neat result I was not aware of (and which Arnaud Doucet, with his unrivalled knowledge of the literature!, pointed out to me in Oxford, avoiding me the tedium to try to prove it afresco!). I remember well reading a version of the paper in Fort Collins, Colorado, in 1993 (I think!) but nothing about this result.

It goes as follows: when running a Metropolis-within-Gibbs sampler for component x¹ of a collection of variates x¹,x²,…, thus aiming at simulating from the full conditional of x¹ given x⁻¹ by making a proposal q(x|x¹,x⁻¹), it is perfectly acceptable to use a proposal that depends on a parameter α (no surprise so far!) and to generate this parameter α anew at each iteration (still unsurprising as α can be taken as an auxiliary variable) and to have the distribution of this parameter α depending on the other variates x²,…, i.e., x⁻¹. This is the surprising part, as adding α as an auxiliary variable was messing up the update of x⁻¹. But the proof as found in the 1995 paper [page 35] does not require to consider α as such as it establishes global balance directly. (Or maybe still detailed balance when writing the whole Gibbs sampler as a cycle of Metropolis steps.) Terrific! And a whiff mysterious..!

## Monte Carlo calculations of the radial distribution functions for a proton-electron plasma

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags , , , , , , , , on October 11, 2017 by xi'an

“In conclusion, the Monte Carlo method of calculating radial distribution functions in a plasma is a feasible approach if significant computing time is available (…) The results indicate that at least 10000 iterations must be completed before the system can be considered near to its equilibrium state, and for a badly chosen starting configuration, the run would need to be considerably longer (…) for more conclusive results a longer run is needed so that the energy of the system can settle into an equilibrium pattern and steady-state radial distribution functions can be obtained.” A.A. Barker

Looking for the history behind Barker’s formula the other day made me look for the original 1965 paper. Which got published in the Australian Journal of Physics at the beginning of Barker’s PhD at the University of Adelaide.

As shown in the above screenshot, the basis  of Barker’s algorithm is indeed Barker’s acceptance probability, albeit written in a somewhat confusing way since the current value of the chain is kept if a Uniform variate is smaller than what is actually the rejection probability. No mistake there! And more interestingly, Barker refers to Wood and Parker (1957) for the “complete and rigorous theory” behind the method. (Both Wood and Parker being affiliated with Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, while Barker acknowledges support from both the Australian Institute of Nuclear Science and Engineering and the Weapons Research Establishment, Salisbury… This were times when nuclear weapon research was driving MCMC. Hopefully we will not come back to such times. Or, on the pessimistic side, we will not have time to come back to such times!)

As in Metropolis et al. (1953), the analysis is made on a discretised (finite) space, building the Markov transition matrix, stating the detailed balance equation (called microscopic reversibility). Interestingly, while Barker acknowledges that there are other ways of assigning the transition probability, his is the “most rapid” in terms of mixing. And equally interestingly, he discusses the scale of the random walk in the [not-yet-called] Metropolis-within-Gibbs move as major, targetting 0.5 as the right acceptance rate, and suggesting to adapt this scale on the go. There is also a side issue that is apparently not processed with all due rigour, namely the fact that the particles in the system cannot get arbitrarily close from one another. It is unclear how a proposal falling below this distance is processed by Barker’s algorithm. When implemented on 32 particles, this algorithm took five hours to execute 6100 iterations. With a plot of the target energy function that does not shout convergence, far from it! As acknowledged by Barker himself (p.131).

The above quote is from the conclusion and its acceptance of the need for increased computing times comes as a sharp contrast with this week when one of our papers was rejected based on this very feature..!