**I**ngmar Schuster, who visited Paris-Dauphine last Spring (and is soon to return here as a postdoc funded by Fondation des Sciences Mathématiques de Paris) has arXived last week a paper on gradient importance sampling. In this paper, he builds a sequential importance sampling (or population Monte Carlo) algorithm that exploits the additional information contained in the gradient of the target. The proposal or importance function being essentially the MALA move as its proposal, mixed across the elements of the previous population. When compared with our original PMC mixture of random walk proposals found in e.g. this paper, each term in the mixture thus involves an extra gradient, with a scale factor that decreases to zero as *1/t√t*. Ingmar compares his proposal with an adaptive Metropolis, an adaptive MALTa and an HM algorithms, for two mixture distributions and the banana target of Haario et al. (1999) we also used in our paper. As well as a logistic regression. In each case, he finds both a smaller squared error and a smaller bias for the same computing time (evaluated as the number of likelihood evaluations). While we discussed this scheme when he visited, I remain intrigued as to why it works so well when compared with the other solutions. One possible explanation is that the use of the gradient drift is more efficient on a population of particles than on a single Markov chain, provided the population covers all modes of importance on the target surface: the “fatal” attraction of the local model is then much less of an issue…

## Archive for adaptive importance sampling

## gradient importance sampling

Posted in Books, pictures, Statistics, University life with tags adaptive importance sampling, Fondation Sciences Mathématiques de Paris, Langevin MCMC algorithm, Leipzig, population Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo, Université Paris Dauphine on July 30, 2015 by xi'an## Bayesian model averaging in astrophysics

Posted in Statistics, University life, Books with tags adaptive importance sampling, Astrophysics, Bayes factor, bridge sampling, computational statistics, evidence, likelihood, model averaging, Monte Carlo technique, population Monte Carlo, statistical analysis and data mining on July 29, 2015 by xi'an*[A 2013 post that somewhat got lost in a pile of postponed entries and referee’s reports…]*

**I**n this review paper, now published in *Statistical Analysis and Data Mining* 6, 3 (2013), David Parkinson and Andrew R. Liddle go over the (Bayesian) model selection and model averaging perspectives. Their argument in favour of model averaging is that model selection via Bayes factors may simply be too inconclusive to favour one model and only one model. While this is a correct perspective, this is about it for the theoretical background provided therein. The authors then move to the computational aspects and the first difficulty is their approximation (6) to the evidence

where they average the *likelihood x prior* terms over simulations from the posterior, which does not provide a valid (either unbiased or converging) approximation. They surprisingly fail to account for the huge statistical literature on evidence and Bayes factor approximation, incl. Chen, Shao and Ibrahim (2000). Which covers earlier developments like bridge sampling (Gelman and Meng, 1998).

As often the case in astrophysics, at least since 2007, the authors’ description of nested sampling drifts away from perceiving it as a regular Monte Carlo technique, with the same convergence speed n^{1/2} as other Monte Carlo techniques and the same dependence on dimension. It is certainly not the only simulation method where the produced “samples, as well as contributing to the evidence integral, can also be used as posterior samples.” The authors then move to “population Monte Carlo [which] is an adaptive form of importance sampling designed to give a good estimate of the evidence”, a particularly restrictive description of a generic adaptive importance sampling method (Cappé et al., 2004). The approximation of the evidence (9) based on PMC also seems invalid:

is missing the prior in the numerator. (The switch from θ in Section 3.1 to X in Section 3.4 is confusing.) Further, the sentence “PMC gives an unbiased estimator of the evidence in a very small number of such iterations” is misleading in that PMC is unbiased at each iteration. Reversible jump is not described at all (the supposedly higher efficiency of this algorithm is far from guaranteed when facing a small number of models, which is the case here, since the moves between models are governed by a random walk and the acceptance probabilities can be quite low).

The second quite unrelated part of the paper covers published applications in astrophysics. Unrelated because the three different methods exposed in the first part are not compared on the same dataset. Model averaging is obviously based on a computational device that explores the posteriors of the different models under comparison (or, rather, averaging), however no recommendation is found in the paper as to efficiently implement the averaging or anything of the kind. In conclusion, I thus find this review somehow anticlimactic.

## optimal mixture weights in multiple importance sampling

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags adaptive importance sampling, AMIS, Art Owen, control variates, multiple mixtures, Oscars (Academy Awards), population Monte Carlo on December 12, 2014 by xi'an**M**ultiple importance sampling is back!!! I am always interested in this improvement upon regular importance sampling, even or especially after publishing a recent paper about our AMIS (for adaptive multiple importance sampling) algorithm, so I was quite eager to see what was in Hera He’s and Art Owen’s newly arXived paper. The paper is definitely exciting and set me on a new set of importance sampling improvements and experiments…

Some of the most interesting developments in the paper are that, (i) when using a collection of importance functions q_{i} with the same target p, every ratio q_{i}/p is a *control variate* function with expectation 1 [assuming each of the q_{i}‘s has a support smaller than the support of p]; (ii) the weights of a mixture of the q_{i}‘s can be chosen in an optimal way towards minimising the variance for a certain integrand; (iii) multiple importance sampling incorporates quite naturally stratified sampling, i.e. the q_{i}‘s may have disjoint supports; )iv) control variates contribute little, esp. when compared with the optimisation over the weights [which does not surprise me that much, given that the control variates have little correlation with the integrands]; (v) Veach’s (1997) seminal PhD thesis remains a driving force behind those results [and in getting Eric Veach an Academy Oscar in 2014!].

One extension that I would find of the uttermost interest deals with unscaled densities, both for p and the q_{i}‘s. In that case, the weights do not even sum up to a know value and I wonder at how much more difficult it is to analyse this realistic case. And unscaled densities led me to imagine using geometric mixtures instead. Or even harmonic mixtures! (Maybe not.)

Another one is more in tune with our adaptive multiple mixture paper. The paper works with *regret*, but one could also work with *remorse*! Besides the pun, this means that one could adapt the weights along iterations and even possible design new importance functions from the past outcome, i.e., be adaptive once again. He and Owen suggest mixing their approach with our adaptive sequential Monte Carlo model.

## Another history of MCMC

Posted in Books, Statistics, University life with tags adaptive importance sampling, EM algorithm, MCMC, mixtures, SEM, Valencia 3 on April 20, 2011 by xi'an**I**n the most recent issue of ** Statistical Science**, the special topic is “

*Celebrating the EM Algorithm’s Quandunciacentennial*“. It contains an historical survey by Martin Tanner and Wing Wong on the emergence of MCMC Bayesian computation in the 1980’s, This survey is more focused and more informative than our global history (also to appear in

**). In particular, it provides the authors’ analysis as to why MCMC was delayed by ten years or so (or even more when considering that a Gibbs sampler as a simulation tool appears in both Hastings’ (1970) and Besag‘s (1974) papers). They dismiss [our] concerns about computing power (I was running Monte Carlo simulations on my Apple IIe by 1986 and a single mean square error curve evaluation for a James-Stein type estimator would then take close to a weekend!) and Markov innumeracy, rather attributing the reluctance to a lack of confidence into the method. This perspective remains debatable as, apart from Tony O’Hagan who was**

*Statistical Science**then*fighting again Monte Carlo methods as being un-Bayesian (1987, JRSS D), I do not remember any negative attitude at the time about simulation and the immediate spread of the MCMC methods from Alan Gelfand’s and Adrian Smith’s presentations of their 1990 paper shows on the opposite that the Bayesian community was ready for the move.

**A**nother interesting point made in this historical survey is that Metropolis’ and other Markov chain methods were first presented outside simulation sections of books like Hammersley and Handscomb (1964), Rubinstein (1981) and Ripley (1987), perpetuating the impression that such methods were mostly optimisation or niche specific methods. This is also why Besag’s earlier works (not mentioned in this survey) did not get wider recognition, until later. Something I was not aware is the appearance of iterative adaptive importance sampling (i.e. population Monte Carlo) in the Bayesian literature of the 1980’s, with proposals from Herman van Dijk, Adrian Smith, and others. The appendix about Smith et al. (1985), the 1987 special issue of JRSS D, and the computation contents of Valencia 3 (that I sadly missed for being in the Army!) is also quite informative about the perception of computational Bayesian statistics at this time.

**A** missing connection in this survey is Gilles Celeux and Jean Diebolt’s stochastic EM (or SEM). As early as 1981, with Michel Broniatowski, they proposed a simulated version of EM for mixtures where the latent variable z was simulated from its conditional distribution rather than replaced with its expectation. So this was the first half of the Gibbs sampler for mixtures we completed with Jean Diebolt about ten years later. (Also found in Gelman and King, 1990.) These authors did not get much recognition from the community, though, as they focused almost exclusively on mixtures, used simulation to produce a randomness that would escape the local mode attraction, rather than targeting the posterior distribution, and did not analyse the Markovian nature of their algorithm until later with the simulated annealing EM algorithm.

## AMIS revised & resubmitted

Posted in R, Statistics, University life with tags adaptive importance sampling, adaptive mixture importance sampling, AMIS, IMIS on December 19, 2010 by xi'an**A**fter a thorough revision that removed most of the theoretical attempts at improving our understanding of AMIS convergence, we have now resubmitted the AMIS paper to ** Scandinavian Journal of Statistics** and arXived the new version as well. (I remind the reader that AMIS stands for

*adaptive mixture importance sampling*and that it implements an adaptive version of Owen and Zhou’s (2000, JASA) stabilisation mixture technique, using this correction on the

*past and present*importance weights, at each iteration of this iterative algorithm.) The AMIS method starts being used in population genetics, including an on-going work by Jean-Marie Cornuet and a published paper in

**by Sirén, Marttinen and Corander. The challenge of properly demonstrating AMIS convergence remains open!**

*Molecular Biology and Evolution*## Recent arXivals

Posted in Statistics, University life with tags adaptive importance sampling, arXiv, hidden Markov models, Monte Carlo methods, sequential Monte Carlo, stochastic search on October 11, 2010 by xi'an**I**nteresting entries I wish I had more time to peruse!

- Dirichlet mean identities and laws of a class of subordinators. (arXiv:1010.1639v1 [math.ST])
- Algorithmic and Statistical Perspectives on Large-Scale Data Analysis. (arXiv:1010.1609v1 [cs.DS])
- Sequential Monte Carlo pricing of American-style options under stochastic volatility models. (arXiv:1010.1372v1 [stat.AP])
- Causal graphical models in systems genetics: A unified framework for joint inference of causal network and genetic architecture for correlated phenotypes. (arXiv:1010.1402v1 [stat.AP])
- A multivariate adaptive stochastic search method for dimensionality reduction in classification. (arXiv:1010.1406v1 [stat.AP])
- Hidden Markov models for alcoholism treatment trial data. (arXiv:1010.1410v1 [stat.AP])
- An empirical Bayes mixture method for effect size and false discovery rate estimation. (arXiv:1010.1425v1 [stat.AP])
- A latent factor model for spatial data with informative missingness. (arXiv:1010.1430v1 [stat.AP])

## IMIS & AMIS

Posted in R, Statistics, University life with tags adaptive importance sampling, adaptivity, AMIS, defensive mxture, IMIS, incremental mixture, mixture estimation, population Monte Carlo, SIR on July 30, 2010 by xi'an**A** most interesting paper by Adrian Raftery and Le Bao appeared in the Early View section of * Biometrics*. It aims at better predictions for HIV prevalence—in the original UNAIDS implementation, a naïve SIR procedure was used, based on the prior as importance function, which sometimes resulted in terrible degeneracy—, but its methodological input is about

*incremental mixture importance sampling*(IMIS), thus relates to the general topic of adaptive Monte Carlo methods I am interested in. (And to some extent to our recent AMIS paper.) Actually, a less elaborate (and less related) version of the IMIS algorithm first appeared in a 2006 paper by Steele, Raftery and Edmond in

**in the setting of finite mixture likelihoods and I somehow managed to miss it…**

*JCGS***R**aftery and Bao propose to replace SIR with an iterative importance sampling technique developed in 2003 by Steele et al. that has some similarities with population Monte Carlo (PMC). (A negligible misrepresentation of PMC in the current paper is that our method does *not* use “the prior as importance function'”.) In its current format, the IMIS algorithm starts from a first guess (e.g., the prior distribution) and builds a sequence of Gaussian (or Gaussian mixture) approximations whose parameters are estimated from the current population, while all simulation are *merged together* at each step, using a mixture stabilising weight

where the weights depend on the number of simulations at step *r*. This pattern also appears in our *adaptive multiple importance sampling* (AMIS) algorithm developed in this arXiv paper with Jean-Marie Cornuet, Jean-Michel Marin and Antonietta Mira, and in the original paper by Owen and Zhou (2000, JASA) that inspired us. Raftery and Bo extend the methodology to an IMIS with optimisation at the initial stage, while AMIS incorporates the natural population Monte Carlo stepwise optimisation developed in Douc et al. (2008, *Annals of Statistics*) that brings the proposal kernel closer to the target after each iteration. The application of the simulations to conduct model choice found in the current paper and in Steele et al. can also be paralleled with the one using population Monte Carlo we conducted for cosmological data in MNRAS.

**I**nterestingly, Raftery and Bo (and also Steele et al.) refer to the defensive mixture paper of Hesterberg (1995, Technometrics), which has been very influential in my research on importance sampling, and (less directly) to Owen and Zhou (2000, JASA), who did propose the deterministic mixture scheme that inspired AMIS. Besides the foundational papers of Oh and Berger (1991, JASA) and West (1993, *J. Royal Statistical Society Series B*), they also mention a paper by Raghavan and Cox (1998, *J. Statistical Simulation & Computation*) I was not aware of, which introduces as well a mixture of importance proposals as a variance stabilising technique.